Commodities Analysis & Opinion

Silver Is Hot and the Miners Are Next

Debt is a global phenomenon that is thousands of years old. Mainstream media outlet CNBC asks, “Is debt good, bad…and should we be concerned?”

It doesn’t really matter if a citizen is concerned. What matters is that they need to own gold, silver, and stock in some mines.

The relentless collapse of US fiat versus gold chart. Sadly, some gold bugs get old before they realize that rather than wasting time predicting every little zig and zag in the price, they should have spent their investing life getting more gold.

Going forward, debt is going to increase, so the focus on getting more gold (and more silver and stock in some mines) is going to become exponentially more vital than it already is today.

For investors who enjoy buying price sales, the $2300-$2265 is a solid zone of immediate focus and potential action.

A move above $2450 seems imminent. If it happens, that price area itself would become another huge zone of support.

Silver? The price action in silver is currently far stronger than gold. This typically occurs in the late stage of an intermediate trend and a June-July surge seems likely.

A look at the short-term silver chart. The pullback to the $30 area features a potential inverse H&S bull consolidation pattern, which is bullish.

A look at the silver/gold ratio chart. There’s clearly room for silver to outperform gold not just over the next two months, but over the next few years.

The dollar has failed against gold. A look at it versus other government fiats. On this weekly chart, the Stochastics action is ominous.

The rectangle pattern has a 67% chance (basis Edwards/Magee) of consolidating the existing trend, which is down.

There’s a big H&S top pattern developing on the US interest rates chart.

What could cause rates to suddenly tumble in the face of the “sticky inflation” that the Fed keeps mentioning as a significant concern?

Note the early August dotted red vertical line on the chart. August is the start of US stock market Aug1-Oct31 crash season.

A crash in the US stock market would send terrified money managers into bonds. Their buying would push bond prices up and rates would fall.

Most US money managers aren’t smart enough to buy gold (yet). Sadly, they still worship the government and central bank as their socialist saviours.

Regardless, the SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA) vs VanEck Merk Gold Trust (NYSE:OUNZ) comparison chart. There are times when gold and the US stock market have synergy (like recently). At other times they move in opposite directions.

For gold, the surge to $2400+ from about $1800 in October has been essentially relentless. This means the major gold buyers in India haven’t been able to buy in serious size. They want more gold, but they haven’t had much of a price sale opportunity to do it.

That means they are more likely to settle for buying a more modest dip (like now). Their national election ends in a week and their return to the gold market could create a decoupling event between the US stock market and gold. Here’s the bottom line:

As the US stock market begins to roll over, gold could initially swoon, but Indian buyers would swarm into the market, putting a mammoth floor under the price.

In contrast, US money managers won’t view a major stock market tumble as a buying opportunity. They’ll panic, sell, and rush into bonds, which will fuel the “low rates are good for gold” trade.

Mining stocks? Well, while silver is in the metals market spotlight, it could be the miners that get it next. Note the stunning outperformance of GDX (NYSE:GDX) and GOAU versus gold in May. Gold has barely made a new high while many miners look like rocket ships blasting past their previous April highs.

Note Stochastics at the bottom of this stunning GDX versus gold big picture chart. It could take another year of rallying before gold stocks become even modestly overbought.


Похожие статьи

Добавить комментарий

Ваш адрес email не будет опубликован. Обязательные поля помечены *

Кнопка «Наверх»