Commodities Analysis & Opinion

Gold Hits Buying-Opportunity Level; Silver Breaks Out


  1. We hit my target of 2392/98 after the CPI number and made a high for the day exactly as predicted.
    We wrote:
    ''We may pause here in overbought conditions but there is definitely no reason for prices to reverse so shorts are ruled out at this stage and further gains look more likely, especially after the data.''

  2. No surprise to see XAU/USD prices retreat therefore on Thursday to my buying opportunity at 2380/75 and longs need stops below 2370.

  3. If we do see a drift lower I would suggest a buying opportunity at 2380/75 and longs need stops below 2370. (We made a low for the day exactly at 2370, so the longs are still being held as I write overnight.Targets: 2390, 2400, 2410

  4. Just be aware that a break above 2400 can target 2414/17 next week.

  5. However a break below 2370 risks a slide to 2362/60 and perhaps as far as 2355/53.


  1. Silver (XAG/USD) shot higher to retest the April high at 2975/80 but has held here throughout Thursday. A break above here today is a buy signal targeting 3000/05 and 3045/65.

  2. Just be aware that a move as far as 3200 in to next week could eventually be seen.

  3. This is important — Failure to beat 3000 risks the formation of a double top pattern, which could be taken as a sell signal. A slide to 2800/2790 is then likely.

WTI Crude June Future

  1. WTI Crude has been trading sideways for 2 weeks, mostly stuck in a 250-tick range. At this stage I must wait for a breakout and hope we can jump on a decent move that might return 200 or 300 ticks profit but for now I have no new ideas while we are trapped.

  2. I am starting to think that Oil is ready to stage a good recovery however and a break above 8000 could be taken as a buy signal targeting 8080/8100, perhaps as far as 8170/90 and even 8280/8300 into next week. **I believe the spot WTI Crude contract trades about 35 ticks below the June futures, so a break above 7970 would be the buy signal for today.

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