Bonds

Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Bond Market Could Be Getting Ready for a Summer Rally

Bond Market Could Be Getting Ready for a Summer Rally

The sharp drop in Treasury yields in recent days has revived chatter that the worst for the bond market may…
Is the Bond Market Rethinking the Outlook for Rate Cuts?

Is the Bond Market Rethinking the Outlook for Rate Cuts?

Here we go again. After yesterday’s news that US job openings fell to a three-year low in April, the data…
Long Bonds Rally: Should We Pay Attention?

Long Bonds Rally: Should We Pay Attention?

After a huge down move that began in December 2021, the long bonds or TLT have had a few shallow…
Bonds Continue to Rally Into a Bull Trap

Bonds Continue to Rally Into a Bull Trap

Bonds are continuing to rally into a fantastic bull trap. Here is the /ZB: The easier-to-trade instrument TLT is obviously…
Powell’s Inflation Warning Drives 10-Year Treasury Yields to Breakout Level

Powell’s Inflation Warning Drives 10-Year Treasury Yields to Breakout Level

Bowing to recent data, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday conceded that inflation progress has stalled and the case…
Is the Yield Curve Still Relevant Amid Series of Wrong Recession Forecasts?

Is the Yield Curve Still Relevant Amid Series of Wrong Recession Forecasts?

When the US Treasury yield curve inverts (short rates rise above long rates) the shift is widely viewed as a…
Annual Treasury Returns Remain Horrid

Annual Treasury Returns Remain Horrid

The one return stat that jumped out at me, was the +0.12% 10-year annual return for the TLT. That’s pretty…
Why Follow Junk Bonds?

Why Follow Junk Bonds?

Bonds issued by companies with a credit rating of BB or lower by S&P or Fitch, or Ba or lower…
Treasury Market Bets Against Fed as Inflation Persists

Treasury Market Bets Against Fed as Inflation Persists

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield well above its estimated “fair value,” based on the average…
Now Is Not the Time to Buy Bonds

Now Is Not the Time to Buy Bonds

The fundamental outlook for bonds remains questionable at best. The leading indicators of growth and inflation for 2024 suggest both…
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